The GLP-1 Shift: Act Fast, Win Big.

GLP-1 drugs are transforming how consumers eat and shop, disrupting portions, preferences, and entire grocery categories. This blog explains why brands must act now with rapid test-and-learn launches to capture emerging opportunities and stay ahead of the shift.

1. GLP-1 drugs are driving major, sustained shifts in eating behaviour across the UK, USA and globally.

2. UK grocery lost £136m in 2024 due to GLP-1 use, with far higher losses expected.

3. Usage growth will accelerate as prices fall, oral formats arrive and prescriptions widen.

4. Users consistently eat 25–35 percent fewer calories, with portion sizes halved.

5. Appetite focus shifts unexpectedly towards healthier, cleaner, simpler foods.

6. Scratch cooking increases as users seek control and fewer processed ingredients.

7. Protein becomes a priority as users try to protect muscle and manage hunger well.

8. Snacking volume falls but demand rises for premium, natural, nutrient-dense bites.

9. Users need emotional support and guidance in a fast physiological and psychological transition.

10. Eating-out behaviour changes, favouring smaller, higher-quality dishes.

11. Micro-nutrient awareness rises sharply as total food intake falls.

12. Premiumisation grows because users buy less but trade up.

13. Younger demographics will drive the next wave of adoption once costs drop.

14. Brands must evolve purpose, language and claims to resonate with GLP-1 needs.

15. Immediate opportunities: portion innovation, supportive ingredients, premium mini formats, new shopper messaging, and fast experimentation.

Why the market must run rapid test-and-learn launches

Assumptions:
GLP-1 users behave fundamentally differently from historic category averages. Forecasting is unreliable because behaviours are new, inconsistent across users and still evolving.

Why this

To reduce risk, capture first-mover advantage and avoid mis-building products that don’t meet real-world usage. The category is too new for desk research alone; only real buying behaviour will reveal demand.

Core reasons

1. Behaviour shifts are unprecedented and unstable
Consumers are eating less, favouring different nutrients, and abandoning previous favourites. Claiming you know what they want is guesswork until you observe real choices.

2. Stated preference is unreliable
GLP-1 users repeatedly say one thing and buy another. Appetite is muted but taste expectations remain high. Rapid pilots reveal what clears the shelf.

3. Category-wide rebalancing demands data fast
Snacking, meals, and treats are all being redefined. Brands that learn fastest will shape the new equilibrium.

4. Snealing is the new growth battleground
With meal volumes collapsing, consumers fill gaps with tiny, nutrient-rich, flavour-dense bites. Only in-market tests identify which textures, formats and claims hit the mark.

5. Premiumisation patterns vary by sub-group
High-income, young, older, fitness-engaged and casual users behave differently. Quick tests expose the micro-segments worth building for.

6. Retailers will reward evidence, not theory
Supermarkets want proof of velocity before committing space. Test-and-learn gives you that evidence quickly.

7. NPD risk drops dramatically
Fail cheap, scale fast. Small production runs plus digital targeting reduce cost and accelerate learning cycles.

Recommended approach (4 steps)

1. Launch micro-batches of 5–10 SKUs focused on portion-controlled, nutrient-dense, premium mini formats.

2. Test across two environments: grocery impulse and direct-to-consumer where GLP-1 communities gather.

3. Track velocity, repeat purchase, daypart patterns and abandonment.

4. Scale the top 10 percent performers into national roll-out with retailer co-funding.

Actions

1. Select three GLP-1-aligned formats to test first: snealing-ready bites, protein-forward minis and micro-portion indulgence.

2. Build a 6-week in-market test plan with retailers and a parallel DTC channel.

3. Set clear success metrics for repeat purchase, basket pairing and rate of sale.

4. Prepare a second wave of reformulations based on real behavioural data.